Rajprasong News Reports: A police special branch general agrees with RN that with Army’s 53 companies in 150 locations in Bangkok are ripe for them to take over, should they so desire. He verifies Army equipment and materials are at 11st Infantry depot. With the Red mobilization in the North and the Northeast last week, the Army uses this as the pretext to launch their media offensive operation quickly by filing lawsuit in Chiengmai against Red 51. Two major issues the Army will deploy their forces on the street will be if the monarchy is attacked and the clash between PDRC and Reds.
Thai Intel just wants to add to Rajprasong News that the theory now, of what the Bangkok establishment is plotting, is to use the courts and independent units, to get rid of Yingluck and Pheu Thai Party, to create a vacumn, to legitimize a so called neutral appointed government. With that neutral appointed government, non-democratic and dictatorship in nature, the elite establishment plans to consolidate power, and get ready for the Red Shirts, expected, to protest the move. Once the Red Shirts makes their move, that Reds Shirts move, will be countered, by the Fascist Suthep protesters. With the initial blood-shed, will set the stage, for further legitimization, for combating a civil war in Thailand. This theory says, the establishment is willing to accept 1,0000s killed.
Some analyst, however, says, once the establishment got rid of Thaksin and Yingluck net-work, from manipulating justice and open politics, and the erecting of the so called neutral government, which is non-democratic and dictatorship in nature, the Red Shirts may in fact, not seek a bloody confrontation that will trigger a civil war, but will choose, a long-war struggle with medium intensity. With that, these analyst say, the establishment, will begin a campaign of assassination, disappearance, threats on all fronts, torture and abductions.
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Thailand Political Analysis: Prayuth’ move at appointing these 2 generals at mid term appointment bodes badly for Yingluck. Gen Prayuth nows know that he holds advantageous position superior to her and Prayuth positions himself to take power later. By putting Gen Kampanart to take over 1st Army, and Gen Apirat to control 1st Division next month, he now knows that he put 2 men he trust should he become the neutral premier. Those 2 generals are real killers in the same mode as Gen Daopong and can be counted on the suppress the Reds harshly should that time arrives.
Thailand Political Analysis 2: Amart will try to make sure that senate’s election later this month takes place smoothly without interruption by allowing the senate body to form, this new body of senators in combination of appointed and election senators can change the law which requires the Prime Minister position which in the current constitution format must be an MP and can not have Section 7 appointed PM since the King said he will not appoint prime minister it.
#Thailand Political Analysis 3: When Yingluck met with Gen Prayuth for Armed Force appointment, she may not have understood Gen Prayuth’s inner motifs why he bring Gen Kampanart and Gen Apirat on board for mid year reshuffle. Gen Apirat was the famed 11st Infantry who guarded Thaicom and pulled out a handgun shooting at the Reds before the fateful day of April 10, 2010 shooting incident at Democracy Monument. And Gen Kampanart, the new first Army commander is equally hard core officer who will not allow Reds any quarter should push come to shoves.
Political Analysis 4: RN knows that Gen Prayuth met the One regularly and the words are when political direction come up, the One never says the C word and Gen Prayuth is confused but keep carrying on with the directives asked by the One. Meanwhile, Yingluck met the One 5 times, much of the discussion are unknown to RN but a certain assumption is they will talk how to stabilize the country but one has to assume that one agenda never is far from his mind is how to prevent Thailand from having civil war.